We calculated future predictions for the word “novel” with low order polynomial regressions. All analyses were carried out by use of R and plots were created with the R package ggplot2.We needed to ensure that any trend in PubMed abstracts was specific for science rather than reflecting general trends in words used in society. Therefore, we also quantified the use of positive and negative words in books published between 1975 and 2009 using the Google Books Ngram Viewer, which charts the frequencies of words or short sentences in millions of books printed between 1800 and 2009.17 We plotted average Google Books patterns and corresponding confidence intervals (calculated from bootstrap sampling of all individual word frequency patterns; 1000 samples/year) to evaluate differences with the patterns obtained from the PubMed queries.In the light of the increasing number of journals and the rise of the open access movement, we selected (based on consensus) 20 journals with high impact factors that were likely to be of interest to biomedical readers (web appendix, web table S1).
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